Tracking progress to a safe climate

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This graph shows an up-to-the-second index of human-induced warming relative to the mid-19th century (1861-80), compared with an up-to-the-second index of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Warming versus cumulative carbon dioxide emissions

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Use the ‘Zoom In’ button below or scroll over the graph to see what is happening in real time. is provided by the Oxford Martin Safe Carbon Investment Initiative.

See here for further details about the graphic above.

In 2015, human-induced warming of our planet is increasing at 1.8 hundredths of a degree per year, or 0.6 billionths of a degree per second, while CO2 emissions from industry and land-use changes are accumulating at 10.5 billion tonnes per year, or 336 tonnes per second.

The pink plume shows how human-induced warming is expected to increase as long as CO2 emissions continue to accumulate in our climate system, based on the latest climate science.

How can this information be used?

Climate science will always be subject to uncertainty, but “anti-fragile” policies linked to an index of human-induced warming can work with this uncertainty rather than fighting against it. We do not know when human-induced warming will reach 2 degrees, but we do know that net CO2 emissions will have to reach zero by then if warming is to be limited to 2 degrees. Human-induced warming increased by one-tenth of a degree between 2009 and 2015, closing the gap to 2 degrees by 10%. So any country or company that committed to limit warming to 2 degrees in 2009 should be 10% of the way through a plan to achieve net zero CO2 emissions. The Oxford Martin School Safe Carbon Investment Initiative will continue to maintain this index as a service to policy-makers, investors and the public, tracking progress to a safe climate.